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4.2.2 Certainty, risk and uncertainty

You make decisions now for action that will be taken to achieve your goals in the future . Important decision making situations often contain some aspects that are unknowable and very difficult to predict.

Decisions made at moments of uncertainty involve risk and the possibility that the course of action taken can lead to losses rather than the desired results. The uncertainty can come from a variety of sources.

You will recall from our discussions in Chapter 2 that issues evolving in the external environment and which are beyond your control can influence your organisation's efforts. In addition, internal organisational, social and political factors such as poor inter-unit communication can make matters uncertain. This is particularly relevant to organisations in the maritime transport industry as the units or parts of your organisation are varied, geographically dispersed and some are constantly on the move. Read on about one manager's viewpoint on decision making.

Making smarter decisions

Ken Iverson, the much-admired chairman of Nucor Steel Corp., is frequently quoted on the subject of why good managers make bad decisions. 'The best managers in the world, a guy with a Harvard MBA,' says Iverson 'might make bad decisions around 40 percent of the time. And a rotten manager might make bad decisions 60 percent of the time'.

Iverson's point is that there's only about a 20 percent difference between a good manager and a rotten one.

But that hasn't stopped him from encouraging aggressive decision making. 'As a manager,' he says, 'you have to make decisions. If you don't make decisions, you are going nowhere and doing nothing. But if you make decisions, you will make bad decisions. You have to be a strange and monstrous ego to think that you never make bad decisions.'

McCormack, M H (1996). 'Mark H. McCormack on managing'. Vision Business Book Summaries , number 159.

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